With 2018 in full swing, experts in real estate are already making their predictions on how this year is going to pan out. Will rents continue to rise? Will affordable homes be as hard to find as they were in recent years? How will the industry be affected by the changes in transportation?
Here are some New York real estate predictions we see looming up ahead:
The L-Train and NYC Ferry
According toÂ Grant Long, StreetEasyâ€™s senior economist, sales within the surrounding area may see decreases as buyersâ€”especially in the Brooklyn area because of the L-Trainâ€™s scheduled shutdown in 2019. However, because the NYC Service is set to expand this 2018, it could mean new sales and development opportunities in Manhattan and the Bronx.
The 2019 L-train shutdown means that anyone signing a 12-month lease after May will need a new commuting plan that doesnâ€™t rely on riding through the Canarsie Tunnel to the 14th Street.
Jason Saft, a broker with Compass, had this to say about the L-train shutdown: â€śSmart developers will realize instead of paying concessions and renovating to compete, they will begin to capitalize on the L train shutdown and the need for instant gratification (in the form of living near your office) and convert rental buildings to condominiums.â€ť
Principal and VP of TF Cornerstone, Zoe Elghanayan, predicts that more suburbanites will make their way to areas like Downtown Brooklyn and the far West Side where heavily amenitized luxury developments that will be priced attractively.
StreetEasyâ€™s Grant Long also talks about how 2017 saw the supply of luxury condos surpass buyer demand, making luxury living in 2018 even more accessible to the â€śnormal-richâ€ť New Yorkers who can now afford these luxury condos that are now being offered at discounted prices. This includes discounted rents of high-end luxury rentals.
Continued Demand for Affordable Housing
Just like the years before, New Yorkers will continue to search for affordable homes, and itâ€™s likely they will do so for many years to come despite increasing competition. This is a reality that New York will need to address as there are profound economic benefits of meeting the demands for affordable housing.
According to the latest New York housing stats published byÂ NYSARÂ showing the typical US housing data, supply of affordable homes has dropped 1%, sales are down 2.5%, and average prices are up 7% from last year.
I personally believe that 2018 will see apartment seekers open to living in the â€śoff-the-beaten-path neighborhoods.â€ť Peopleâ€™s boundaries have expanded and huge swaths of the city that were once industrial or sleepy are now bustling with life. CitiBike, car-sharing services and the (wildly-successful) East River Ferry have changed the rules. These services are making it easier for residents in areas underserved by subways or buses to get around. The MTA isnâ€™t the only game in town anymore.â€ť
NYC Neighborhoods to Keep on Your Radar
City RealtyÂ recently interviewed some real estate experts on what they believed were neighborhoods to look out for in 2018. Kathy Berkowitz, broker with Rutenberg, has noticed a lot of movement in the West 150s while Joshua Silverbush believes that the Financial District and Hellâ€™s Kitchen will see a lot more residential development in both condo and rental. And Paul Travis, Managing Partner, Washington Square Partners, believes that millennials will find neighborhoods like Downtown Brooklyn, Williamsburg, and Astoria as attractive alternatives to Manhattan.
Do you have any real estate predictions for 2018? Tell us about them.